The rise of Xi Jinping has fundamentally altered the structural bedrock of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), moving the world’s second-largest economy toward a model of hyper-centralized authority and ideological rigidity. Graham Fletcher, a veteran diplomat who served as Australia’s ambassador to China from 2019 to 2023, provides a sobering assessment of this shift. According to Fletcher, now a nonresident fellow at the Lowy Institute, Xi’s tenure represents a deliberate departure from the collective leadership model that defined the post-Deng Xiaoping era, replacing it with a system predicated on absolute political discipline and the preservation of the regime at all costs.
The Architecture of Political Dominance
Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power is not merely a byproduct of individual ambition but a calculated response to what he perceives as the existential threats that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Fletcher notes that Xi, a member of the "Hongerdai"—the revolutionary second generation—views corruption as a "cancer" that weakens the party’s ideological mandate. By utilizing the state’s security apparatus to conduct relentless anti-corruption purges, Xi has effectively dismantled potential factional opposition.
This strategy of "weeding the garden" creates a paradox of governance. While the constant threat of investigation ensures loyalty and adherence to the party line, it simultaneously stifles the flow of accurate information to the top. This lack of "contestability" in decision-making processes was arguably evident during the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, where local officials feared reporting the scale of the outbreak. Despite the risks, Xi has successfully filled the Politburo with loyalists, effectively ending the era of factional balancing that previously provided a mechanism for internal debate.
Chronology of Consolidation and Strategic Shifts
The trajectory of Xi’s power can be traced through key milestones that signaled the end of the reform-era norms:
- 2012: Xi Jinping ascends to the position of General Secretary of the CCP, initiating an aggressive anti-corruption campaign that targets both "tigers" (high-ranking officials) and "flies" (lower-level bureaucrats).
- 2017: "Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era" is enshrined in the party constitution, elevating his status to that of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.
- 2018: The National People’s Congress removes presidential term limits, effectively allowing Xi to serve indefinitely.
- 2022: The 20th National Congress solidifies Xi’s third term, with the Politburo Standing Committee entirely composed of his protégés.
- 2024 and Beyond: Beijing intensifies its focus on self-reliance, state-led industrial policy, and the assertion of "whole-process democracy" as a viable alternative to Western liberal models.
Economic Policy and the Manufacturing Dilemma
China currently faces a complex economic landscape characterized by moderating growth, aging demographics, and mounting international resistance to its manufacturing overcapacity. Fletcher observes that Xi remains committed to a state-led economic model, assuming that the international market will continue to absorb Chinese exports. However, this strategy, which was effective when China accounted for only 5% of global GDP, is increasingly untenable as China’s share has surged to roughly 18%.
The reliance on a manufacturing-export-heavy model has sparked trade tensions with the European Union and the United States, as nations seek to protect their own industries from what they view as unfair competition. While Beijing has demonstrated a pragmatic ability to adjust economic levers when necessary, the overarching priority remains political stability. This prioritization of state control over economic efficiency poses a long-term risk to China’s ability to transition into a high-value, consumption-driven economy.
Technology, Surveillance, and the AI Frontier
The development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) occupies a central role in China’s strategic planning. While Beijing views AI as a catalyst for economic growth, it is simultaneously wary of the social displacement caused by automation. The state’s approach to AI is twofold: it is an engine for national development and a critical tool for the "surveillance state."
Fletcher notes that AI allows Beijing to monitor and respond to dissent with unprecedented speed. Although the system remains a "cat-and-mouse game" with emerging pockets of online resistance, the technological advantage firmly rests with the state. Internationally, China seeks to lead in specific sectors of AI, aiming for a degree of technological sovereignty that would render it immune to Western sanctions or restrictions on high-end semiconductors.
The Geopolitical Stance: Russia, Europe, and the Taiwan Question
China’s foreign policy is increasingly defined by its commitment to "national rejuvenation," a goal that includes the eventual reunification with Taiwan. While Fletcher does not anticipate a forceful reunification attempt in the immediate future, he characterizes it as a serious, long-term threat. Beijing views Taiwan as "unfinished business" from the civil war and believes it possesses the strategic patience to wait until it holds overwhelming superiority.
Regarding the "no limits" partnership with Russia, Fletcher argues that Beijing’s support for Moscow is a low-cost, high-reward policy. China gains access to cheap energy while Russia bears the diplomatic costs of confronting the Western-led international order. However, this relationship is not without friction. Beijing is reportedly concerned about Russia’s growing military ties with North Korea, fearing that such cooperation could lead to regional instability that threatens China’s influence over the Korean Peninsula.
In its relations with Europe, China’s refusal to provide concessions on trade or take a stance on the war in Ukraine has strained ties. Beijing often underestimates the political angst its export practices cause in European capitals, operating under the assumption that China’s eventual success is inevitable and that the West will eventually "come to its senses."
Implications for the International Order
The international community, particularly the United States and its allies, faces a China that is more assertive and less interested in integrating into the existing global framework as a "responsible stakeholder." Fletcher warns that nations often fail to apply the same cost-benefit frameworks to China that they use for other global powers, distracted by the modernization of China’s infrastructure and the scale of its market.
The lack of nuclear transparency and the absence of established arms-control dialogues further exacerbate these risks. Unlike the Cold War-era Soviet Union, which engaged in risk mitigation with the United States, China remains skeptical of transparency, viewing it as a disadvantage that the U.S. would exploit.
Conclusion
As Xi Jinping continues his tenure, the world is witnessing the rise of a major power that is deeply suspicious of Western values and committed to an alternative, state-centric model of development. The risks inherent in this concentration of power are significant: the suppression of dissent, the potential for policy errors due to a lack of accurate feedback, and the looming prospect of regional conflict. For the international community, the challenge lies in maintaining a hard-headed, interest-based engagement with a China that is confident in its own narrative of superiority, yet increasingly anxious about the challenges of sustaining an authoritarian system in a globalized world. The coming decade will likely be defined by how effectively global powers navigate this new, less predictable, and highly competitive strategic environment.
